Obamaphobia

I know it's been a while since we've posted anything about China, but it seemed a bit silly to write something about our experiences there without being in Beijing. Here in the United States, however, recent events have gotten me thinking about the Iowa Electronic Markets ("IEM"), and how the outcome of the Democratic primary could effect Sino-American relations.

Developed by the University of Iowa's Business School, the Iowa Electronic Markets predict real-world economic and political phenomena through the use of market mechanisms, oftentimes more accurately than professional pollsters. The IEM trade a form of futures contract known as a cash-or-nothing binary option. Such options will pay one dollar if the predicted event comes to pass, or nothing if it doesn't. As with computer vulnerability markets, during the course of trading the market prices of the contracts approximate the likelihood of a particular event occurring . So if the price of the Hilary contract in the Democratic Primary Market equals 55 cents, it means that traders in that particular market think that there's a 55% likelihood that Hilary will secure the Democratic nomination.

This may seem like a silly system to some, but the IEM have a high degree of accuracy in predicting electoral outcomes. So when Barack Obama briefly surpassed Hilary Clinton in the Democratic Primary Market in the wake of the Iowa caucuses, it seemed more and more likely that America would elect its first African-American president in 2008. (Stanford Law Professor and Cyber-celeb Lawrence Lessig, an unabashed Obama supporter, even thought Obama's surge in the IEM a blog-worthy event.) As with any other global political or economic phenomenon, however, the possibility of Obama becoming president presents some interesting questions with respect to China.

As I have noted before, China has a problem with xenophobia, particularly with respect to the Japanese. Unfortunately, this problem extends to people of African heritage, such as Senator Obama. Indeed, some have argued that the Tienanmen Square events were in part foreshadowed by protests against African foreign students at Nanjing University that started in late 1988. The State-run media in China has set forth some interesting counter-arguments with respect to Chinese perceptions of "darker" people, trying to make the case that mainland attitudes towards Africans have more to do with their perceived economic status and China's historic isolation from other nations. At its simplest level, however, as reported by Professor Yu Hai of Fudan University, the Chinese perception of African people can be encapsulated as follows:

"If a Chinese woman dates a white man it is social climbing. If she is with a black man, it is 'stepping down'. In this situation, the Chinese will express very strong feelings about ethnicity."

One must therefore wonder about the effect of race on America's ties with the Chinese should he become president. As the Guardian noted, "[t]he official position of the Chinese Communist party, of course, has always been anti-racist, but there is a world of difference between official attitudes and the deeply held prejudices of a people." Indeed, the Chinese net nannies turned a blind eye to racist Internet postings written about Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, including one tamer post that said, "This black woman is not welcome!!!" More recently, the Beijing police engaged in racial profiling when they rounded up Africans in the Sanlitun largely based upon skin color, and supposedly beat them. If you want to read even more examples, check out the race category on the blog of "Black China Hand," who describes himself as "a brother on the road in China."

Granted, the Chinese have developed strong ties with African nations which suggest that they can stow such negative attitudes. But one can also point to those relationships as necessary for China's continued economic development, given that China has forged such ties with African nations in order to capture their natural resources. I hope, of course, that our friends across the Pacific will rise above base instincts if President Obama takes office. I also hope that America's first black president, Obama or not, will be a source of change to such long-held beliefs. But if Obama does become President, I suspect that he might find a somewhat cooler reception amongst the ordinary Chinese people than his predecessors, particularly given his co-sponsorship of a bill that would impose increased duties on Chinese goods, his comments with respect to banning toys made in China, or some other past hints of his planned policies towards China.

I realize, of course, that I have engaged in stereotyping about stereotyping. There are plenty of Chinese people who do not share such views, and I know several of them. Moreover, there is plenty of racism to be found in America, particularly when it comes to both African Americans and people of Chinese descent. But still, I will not be surprised if the actions of a President Obama provoke more vile invective on China's blogs than those of Condi Rice.